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Quantum computing is the next level, but don't expect overnight miracles

By Chris Novak4 min read
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Quantum computing is the next level, but don't expect overnight miracles

Market strategist Kenny Polcari says quantum will revolutionize computing and break encryption, but warns AI is still in its early innings.

Quantum computing is about to take us to “the next level of computing,” according to Kenny Polcari, chief market strategist at a major financial firm. In a recent interview, Polcari described how a simulation program that ran 15% faster on a quantum system compared to a traditional computer workload is just a small preview of what’s coming. His comments come as investors grapple with the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence and the potential for quantum to upend the entire tech landscape.

Polcari didn’t just talk about speed improvements. He made a bolder claim: quantum will eventually destroy current encryption and cybersecurity systems. That destruction, he argues, will create a whole new opportunity in cybersecurity — a sector that will need to rebuild from scratch once quantum computers become powerful enough to crack today’s public‑key cryptography.

“It’s going to destroy encryption and current levels of encryption and cybersecurity,” Polcari said. “It’s a whole new opportunity in the cybersecurity base as a result of what quantum can do. Think about financials and the exchanges and all the security.”

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The implication is stark. If a large‑scale quantum computer arrives sooner than expected, everything from bank transactions to government communications could become vulnerable. Companies that develop quantum‑resistant encryption algorithms and post‑quantum security solutions could see a surge in demand. Polcari’s warning aligns with what many cybersecurity researchers have been saying for years: the transition to quantum‑safe cryptography needs to start now, not after the threat materializes.

AI is still in the early innings

The interview also touched on OpenAI, which recently missed internal milestones for revenue and subscribers. CEO Sam Altman pushed back on the negative headlines, and Polcari urged viewers not to overreact. “I don’t think we need to panic,” he said. “The story is a little overdone. I don’t think it is as negative as the story projects it to be.”

Polcari’s broader view on AI is grounded in the idea that the industry is still in its early stages. “We are still just on deck, not even up to bat,” he said. “I’m not letting go of any of my AI winners because I’ve done well. I like buying the names on the back — I’m not chasing them — but when Amazon or Microsoft went on sale, they were huge opportunities.”

He expressed confusion about Honeywell’s recent stock decline, calling it a “solid name” that provides diversified exposure to AI, since the industrial giant uses AI across its own operations. “I would use it as an opportunity,” he added.

The memory bottleneck

One practical concern Polcari highlighted was the shortage of high‑bandwidth memory, a critical component for AI workloads. “AI doesn’t exist without memory,” he said. “High‑bandwidth memory — we are running short on that.” He noted that investors should consider where memory companies sit in the AI story. “You can see when it exploded last year. I wouldn’t be chasing it, but any real pullback I would buy it.”

Memory makers like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron have seen huge demand for HBM, which is used to feed data to AI accelerators faster than traditional DRAM. The shortage has been a recurring theme in 2024, and it’s a bottleneck that could persist even as quantum computing advances.

Quantum hype vs. reality

Polcari’s enthusiasm for quantum is shared by many in the tech industry, but it’s worth tempering expectations. The 15% speed improvement he referenced, while real, comes from a narrow simulation benchmark. Today’s quantum processors are still error‑prone and limited to a few hundred qubits. Practical, fault‑tolerant quantum computers that can break RSA encryption are likely years — maybe decades — away.

Nevertheless, the message from investors like Polcari is clear: the direction is set. Quantum will eventually change the game, and the companies that prepare for that transition — both in cybersecurity and in hardware — could be the big winners. Until then, the AI boom continues to drive demand for memory, compute, and infrastructure.

For individual investors, Polcari’s advice is pragmatic: don’t chase hype, but don’t ignore the trend. Buy on pullbacks in high‑quality names, whether they are AI giants or memory suppliers. And keep an eye on quantum — not as a trade for tomorrow, but as a technology that will reshape the industry over the next decade.

The interview didn’t specify which stocks Polcari is buying, but he mentioned owning fundamentals — “basics” — and he said he’s 100% in on one of the names he discussed. “Without a doubt, you got to own basics,” he said, likely referring to basic materials or foundational tech stocks.

What comes next

The convergence of quantum computing and AI is still in its infancy, but the conversations on Wall Street are already shifting. Polcari’s remarks echo a growing consensus: the next leap in computing power won’t come from scaling up classical chips alone. It will come from quantum, and the companies that invest now — in encryption, memory, and diversified tech — will be best positioned for the transition.

For now, the AI story remains the dominant narrative, but quantum is the quiet force building beneath the surface. As Polcari put it, “You will see quantum change even the face of the current AI and technology landscape we have today.” That change may not happen overnight, but it is coming.

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Chris Novak

Staff Writer

Chris covers artificial intelligence, machine learning, and software development trends.

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