Bitcoin's price has faced notable selling pressure over the past week, leading traders and analysts to evaluate its potential short-term movements. Using Elliott Wave analysis, several scenarios have emerged regarding Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Let’s break down the critical pathways as outlined in this analysis.

Short-Term Elliott Wave Scenarios for Bitcoin

Elliott Wave theory provides a framework for understanding Bitcoin’s price trends through a wave structure consisting of impulse and corrective phases. Based on the chart analysis, Bitcoin seems to have completed a five-wave decline from its recent high reached between March 16 and March 17. This decline may signal further bearish momentum, though the exact pathway remains uncertain.

Bearish Scenario 1: Orange Count

The orange count represents the most bearish scenario for Bitcoin. Under this projection:

• The recent price movement is categorized as Wave 1 to the downside, implying the formation of a corrective bounce (Wave 2).
• The resistance area for the bounce lies between $70,530 and $74,870.
• Should Bitcoin remain below the 78.6% retracement level during the resistance test, the pathway for lower prices becomes more probable.

This scenario suggests Bitcoin might see prices drop into the $55,000 to $56,000 range. However, validating this pathway depends on observing a three-wave corrective structure during the upcoming bounce. Such a move would further establish that the market is heading lower.

Bearish Scenario 2: Blue Count

The blue count is a less aggressive bearish scenario. Here, analysts predict Bitcoin could remain range-bound for a bit longer through a W-X-Y structure:

• The resistance area outlined in the orange count ($70,530–$74,870) is equally relevant in this setup.
• Following the resistance test, prices are expected to react to a lower support zone defined between $61,560 and $64,588.

Though this scenario suggests a bearish trajectory, it anticipates a slower, more staggered progression toward lower price ranges.

Bullish Scenario: White Count

While less probable, the white count keeps the potential for a bullish breakout on the table:

• If Bitcoin breaks above initial resistance, an upward C-Wave in Wave 3 could emerge, followed by a Wave 4 and Wave 5 extension toward $80,000.
• However, this scenario has been deemed unlikely after observing the five-wave decline from the March high. A clear setup for higher prices is, at this point, absent from the market structure.

Key Levels to Watch

The following price levels play a significant role in determining Bitcoin’s short-term direction:

Key Level	Role	Potential Outcome if Breached
$70,530–$74,870	Resistance area during corrective bounce	Validates bearish scenarios if rejected
$61,560–$64,588	Lower support zone	Rebound from this level could reset bullish momentum
$55,000–$56,000	Target for the most bearish scenario	Indicates deeper retracement
Above $74,870	Break above resistance	Revives potential for bullish white count setup

Practical Takeaways for Traders

1. Monitor the Resistance Zone: The resistance between $70,530 and $74,870 will be a key test for Bitcoin price movement. A rejection confirms bearish trends (orange and blue counts), while a break above could signal bullish potential.

2. Watch for a Bounce Structure: If the bounce from lower support forms a three-wave pattern (corrective), it would validate the likelihood of continued downside. The structure is a reliable indicator of market momentum.

3. Time Frame Considerations: The market’s next major movement will likely play out over the next 24 to 48 hours. Early rebounds this week should provide clarity on the direction.

4. Longer-Term Projection: For long-term holders, the white count (bullish) scenario should not be entirely ignored. Should Bitcoin break above the $74,000 resistance convincingly, the path toward $80,000 remains possible.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's recent price movements reveal multiple possibilities for its next steps, with the orange count leaning towards the most bearish scenario. The coming week will be critical, as the market navigates key resistance and support zones. Traders should closely watch the bounce structure and how Bitcoin interacts with major resistance levels. While the bullish pathway remains valid, it is increasingly less likely given the five-wave decline observed recently. Short-term strategies should consider the outlined bearish scenarios until clearer bullish confirmation arises.